Alberta’s seniors population is projected to increase by 135% over the next thirty years, while the total population of the province is to increase by only 37%. The number of people 55 years of age and older, the seniors population, will increase by 686,600 people, from 506,900 in 1998 to 1.2 million to 2028, almost doubling this age group’s share of the total population from 1998’s 17 percent to 30 percent by 2028.

No matter what portion of the seniors population is considered, significant relative and absolute increases will occur. Today, 1 in 8 people in Alberta are 65 years of age or older; in 30 years, they will account for 1 in 6 (and by 2036, for 1 in 4). Thirty years ago, there were 104,000 people in Alberta 65 plus, today there are 273,000, and by 2028, there will be 684,000.

The 75 plus age group increased from 2.8% of the population in 1966 to 4.1% in 1996, and is projected to increase to 6.6% by 2026. The 114,100 people 75 and older in Alberta in 1996 was almost three times the 40,900 there were in 1966; by 2026 there will be 259,800 people in Alberta 75 and older, more than twice today’s number. Even in the 85 and older population, the increase in both number and share will be impressive. In 1966, 0.5% of Alberta’s population was 86 plus; by 1996 the share had increased to 1.0%; and by 2026 it will have increased to 1.5% of the total population. The number of people 85 plus in Alberta more than tripled from 1966’s 6,900 to 1996’s 27,000: the number will more than double to 57,400 by 2026.

These projections, based on historical trends, will probably underestimate the growth of the seniors population in Alberta. Increases in life expectancies and seniors health will mean an even greater increase in the seniors population through increased longevity and reduced migration.

The growth of the seniors population will have profound implications for neighbourhoods, communities, governments, service providers and for seniors themselves. The effects of Alberta’s aging population will impact housing markets, and the social services, health care, recreation systems, in both surprising and not surprising ways. In his presentation, Mr. Baxter will consider the forces that have shaped the size and composition of Alberta’s seniors population in the past, and will shape it in the future. He will review the changing role of natural increase and migration on the seniors population, and will examine how the demographics of aging will affect communities in the province.

For more information about this topic, please contact the Urban Future Institute.